How long would you keep your job if you only had 20:1 odds of getting paid each week for the time spent? Other than Chicago Bear fans, how many times would you lay down cash on a bet for a team that only has 20:1 of winning? I'm guessing for many people the answers are "not long" and "not often or never". Yet many of today's MMORPG game designers expect you to do 20:1 against, and frequently. Of what do I speak? I'm talking about Pick-Up Groups, commonly called, PUGs.
Stepping away from my raiding toon and back to one that is still leveling, I once again face the question of, "To group or not to group?" I'm more inclined to solo from the get-go and the ever increasing odds of PUG failure, only makes me more inclined to do so. 20:1 is probably an exageration but not by too much. I know that my odds of completing an instance with a PUG group - sub quests completed, boss mob down, initial group stays in tact until the end, isn't very good. When I include the time to find the group, get everyone to the instance and get rolling, a failed PUG is more than a minor inconvenience, it can be a huge chunk of wasted time. If you don't have much time to play, then the impact to your game advancement and enjoyment are both greatly diminished. If I used any potions, oils, buff food or anything with an extended cooldown in the course of the misadventure, then the cost of failure is even higher.
Given the deplorable odds for success, is it any wonder that many people choose instead to take the surer route of soloing small quests and grind? You have two hours to play today. Do you rely on yourself, knowing that you can control the outcome and meet your objective for the session or risk it with a PUG? If I have rest bonus XP there is no question in my mind that I'm going to solo. If a group of friends or guildmates runs an instance or quest, I'll do that, but I don't throw away time and rest XP on PUGs.
I think the problem that we are facing is two-fold. As more busy, career-oriented people with hectic lives enter the MMORPG game-space, the percentage of players who are fiercely protective of their game time is going to increase. We need to log-in, get shit done and have some fun along the way. Wasting time with people who don't have a clue, are rude, childish, inconsiderate or all of the above isn't what we'll choose to place our bets on. So we gravitate to the sure thing - friends or solo.
Another issue is the actual time required to complete tasks as in higher levels and end-game. These long drawn out instances aren't even an option for many people. It's not that we can't play 20+ hours week - it's that we can't do it 5 hours at a time. We need to do 1-2 hour sessions or have the option of walking away with very little notice, then continuing on when we can. Well, with the exception for the new 45-minute Strat, this isn't even remotely possible. And gambling this precious time on the 20:1 odds of a successful PUG is just begging for failure and disappointment.
Is my time in WOW an investment? You bet your ass it is. I pay for the service, an ISP and decent enough PC hardware to play the game in style. How often do I want to bet that on a long instance with a PUG? Not very. In the end, the more patient who have time to gamble are more likely to PUG. Whereas those of us with little time to spend on risky bets, will make the choice again and again, to solo.
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